$15bn to $39bn will be added EVERY Year over next 20 yrs holding the (nominal) Total Federal Debt/GDP ratio just under 30% - assuming the Nominal "BAU" GDP growth rate of 3.5-4.0% is correct.
Now one VERY SURPRISING factor in the Update was including Demographic factors - such as Fertility rates, Retirement ages and Immigration rates. To me this was a real surprise as in the past (only 4-5 yrs ago) this was rarely considered important enough to include such factors - but obviously now with an aging Labour Force and sub-replacement fertility rates (assumed to be 1.67 births/women) these addition of Immigrants is an important factor to maintain productivity factors.
Here is an International Comparison (but included ALL Government Debt)
Blogger ViableOpposition has made some other observations about the trend in International debt ratio's.
Also here was the MacDonald Laurier Institute study of Provincial Default rates* from March 2011.
*It is notable that Ontario has the highest Default probability (and then Alberta) going out 15, 20 and 30 years. Finally, is it not interesting that Alberta has the SECOND highest probability of Default which brings me back the point that in 1936 Alberta was the first Province to DEFAULT. This event provoked a very interesting historical experiment by the Social Credit party that led to the second longest serving party (35 yrs) in party history until replaced by the Progressive Conservatives in 1971 (who were defeated by NDP in 2015 after 44yrs).
Therefore it should come as no surprise that on exactly the same day the Province of Alberta ALSO provided its own Fiscal Update revealing that it had upped its Borrowing authority to $37bn (the max) over the next 2 years hoping no doubt to avoid scrutiny as everyone was leaving for Xmas Holidays on a Fri Dec 23, 2017.
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International Government Debt OECD Website
ProvincialSolvencyandFederalObligations by Marc Joffe - March 2012
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